Iain Dale: Hampstead and Kilburn is a Tory GAIN


collage2LBC presenter and well-connected political blogger Iain Dale has come up with constituency by constituency predictions for the general election, lots of which are in this weekend’s Independent on Sunday. His views on Hampstead and Kilburn are the most interesting for us, as he’s changed his mind about how he thinks the patch will swing.

And no longer does he call a Labour hold.

You might think, he’s a Tory, he’s bound to say that, but if you look at how he has dealt with other constituencies, you can see a desire to be even-handed in his approach.

“Glenda Jackson is standing down,” Dale says. “Her successor candidate, Tulip Siddiq, faces a doughty campaigner in the Tory Simon Marcus but this seat will be determined by whoever wins the most former Lib Dem voters to their side. I’ve had a lot of new info on this seat and have changed it to a Tory gain.”

With Tulip leading Lord Ashcroft’s polls and a clear favourite with the bookmakers, sources of clues which Dale says he has consulted, what could this new info be? 

The Tories locally, for their part, continue to hint that the mansion tax debate has flattened the scores in a place like Hampstead and Kilburn. “It’s made it 50/50 now,” one campaign source insists. I’m not sure Labour supporters agree.


8 Comments on Iain Dale: Hampstead and Kilburn is a Tory GAIN

  1. Simon Marcus to win?? Having a laugh? Did you see his leaden performance at Planning by DC about the Hampstead dams on Thursday? Chris Philp was a proper candidate but he’s going to replace Richard Ottoway in safe seat South Croydon.

  2. Amazing how Planning still fails to deal with residents respectfully.The Tories have done so much better on local and national developments e.g. Swiss Cottage and HS2. The face of the current administration, featured as a winner for her entry as a pudding on this blog, and who seems to have driven through lamp-post advertising without public and full council consultation, is Heather Johnson surely?

    • Well “Francis” if Simon is so brilliant at these local issues at planning then that’s an argument for why he should stay on the council rather than lose all of these talents to Westminster.

    • Heather is in the wrong job ; in the Day too – ideally would make a good matron ; except, no one listens to her (

  3. Paul Braithwaite // January 18, 2015 at 3:16 pm //

    The blog is about H & K parliamentary candidates.
    Heather Johnson, as chair of DC Planning, has no role in that or in approving banner advertising.
    But whilst on the subject of Planning, Andrew Marshall is a considerable loss but Roger Freeman continues at least to provide sage contributions to the Committee – which is NON-Partisan.

    • Andrew Marshall // January 25, 2015 at 4:25 pm //

      Thank you Paul, most kind. Especially as we didn’t always take the same approach on DC, but we were both certainly non-partisan.

  4. Chris Knight // January 20, 2015 at 11:37 am //

    Now Now All, this blog is about the opinions of a certain Mr Dale on the outcome of the seat in May 2015 and has nothing to do with planning, so lets not lose the plot. It is a fact that votes for Red Eds Tulip or I’ll get into bed with Blues or Reds, Cling On Clegg/Toxic-Nicks Nawaz brings the promise of Mansion Tax which when named fully becomes the London Property Tax.

    Simon will make a great MP for H&K who will work tirelesly for the constituency.

    I agree with Iain!

  5. Hampstead is a test: has Boris’ fairly obvious social engineering of London (sitting back allowing middle class and poor to be priced out of north London) done enough to make the seat blue?

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