Panic Power? Bookmaker begins cutting odds on Labour to hold Hampstead and Kilburn

ONE of the posts I’ve had lots of people asking me about in recent days is how bookmakers have reached the conclusion that it is likely Labour’s Tulip Siddiq will be unseated by the Tories next month. Paddy Power on Monday had Conservative candidate Claire-Louise Leyland as the 1/8F hot favourite and Labour at 7/2, odds which caused a ripple of surprise among people who feel they did not reflect how close the contest will be.

I did try to explain in that post how bookies often saw political betting as a novelty and therefore often struggle to run the same tight markets they do on horse racing or football. Often they cap the maximum wager on political betting in case somebody with a greater sense of what is likely to happen in individual constituencies tries to load up on an overly-generous price. But I think people just looked at the headline figures.

The chance to bet on Tulip at a high price – and I write this feeling that there is a decent debate to be had on whether betting on politics should really be allowed – may now have gone, however. In less than week, Paddy Power has cut her odds down to 9/4, while the Conservatives drift a bit to 3/10. Other bookmakers are weighing in to the general election markets, and if you scout around you can find Tulip at a higher price but it’s interesting to see this market move in Labour’s favour in a week when the party has done so badly in the local elections across the country.

5 Comments on Panic Power? Bookmaker begins cutting odds on Labour to hold Hampstead and Kilburn

  1. Chris Knight // May 6, 2017 at 9:57 pm //

    Osser clearly this post shows where you spend some of your time! It also shows your a bit of a Labour optimist, that said we’ll see on the day, either way do you want a bet on the size of the majority of the winning team?

  2. Sedgers // May 6, 2017 at 11:49 pm //

    On the day of the last general election, I popped in to a bookie, to put money on the Conservatives winning, having done a bit of telling in the morning and read the runes. However, I couldn’t work out how to place a bet, so I gave up and walked out. This was in Gospel Oak, mind you, so I couldn’t exactly walk up to the cashier and ask how to back the Tories, without possibly getting my head kicked in by the brotherhood of benefit claimants, habitually situated there. Shame, because I would have won a stonking payout, had I placed the £100 quid I was intending. So, Richard, will you me accompany, this time round, to the bookies on Kilburn High street, to help me out? I know you’d never have such qualms about airing your allegiances.

    • Alan Watson // May 21, 2017 at 6:10 pm //

      Why do you think ‘the brotherhood of benefit claimants’ would kick your head in if you put a bet on in a betting shop? I wonder if the brotherhood of the extremely wealthy snobs would kick a benefit claimant’s head in for putting on a bet on a horse at Ascot? Of course a benefit claimant couldn’t habitually situate themselves at race courses; unlike the rich and lazy. There is a bookie on West End Lane you could patronise amongst the profusion of estate agents there – another profession with a license to print money.

  3. Chris Knight // May 9, 2017 at 9:35 am //

    Osser perhaps I’ii come along too with you and Sedgers he could then witness our side bet on the size of the majority of the winning team “CONSERVATIVES WINNING HERE”

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